Australia, currently in India for the Border-Gavaskar trophy, is the top side in the ICC Test Championship 2021-2023 table with 136 points.
India is in second position with 99 points.
As per the ICC World Test Championship table situation, Australia has almost set foot in the final and it will be very difficult to find a scenario where Australia would not be one of the finalists in the World Test Championship.
India, although favorite due to the home conditions, have much at stake, however in terms of reaching the final. If they are to lose the series and South Africa wins big against the West Indies, there is a chance of them dropping to the third position and South Africa will advance to the final.
Here are some of the possible scenarios:
India win 2-1 , 1 Match is drawn, South Africa win over WI 2-0
In this scenario India and Australia will reach the final with 152 and 127 points respectively. Their winning percentage will be 75.56 and 58.93 respectively (The final is decided based on this percentage and not the points).
India draws Australia 1-1 , 2 matches drawn, South Africa win over WI 2-0
In this scenario, India will end up number 3 on the table, and South Africa will advance to the World Test Championship finals.
India draws Australia 2-2 , South Africa win over WI 2-0
In this scenario, India will advance to the final with Australia.
India wins over Australia 1-0, 3 matches drawn , South Africa win over WI 2-0
In this scenario, India will be in the finals with Australia.
Considering the scenarios above, it is clear that India has to win the series to ensure a place in the ICC Test Championship final.
What other scenarios you can think of? Feel free to ask in comments.